Upper trendline resistance of 1150. Small cap indices like the Russell 2000 are diverging as investors are taking money out of them, the leadership of the blue chips is defensive and suggestive of problems ahead.

Nysi divergence is not a good sign for the bulls...

Baltic Dry Index sell signal. This index is for shipping rates of dry goods (lots of commodities which are considered to be leading indicators for how much future economic activity will occur, for example concrete, copper, steel etc. This is a short sell signal based on this last leg of the rally but this rally is a second attempt to break above the first failed rally so this could lead to a significant test of the lows a year ago.

S&P Price Oscillator Is Three Standard Deviations From Mean: 99% Outlier Market, this shows the market is currently over-bought. Selecto over at Traders-talk has posted this chart from Sentiment Trader

"When the Price Oscillator reaches an extreme, it often marks short-term exhaustion in buying or selling pressure. We generally use readings over 59% to indicate an excessive amount of buying pressure (particularly when in a longer-term downtrend), and readings below 41% to indicate that the selling may be overdone (especially when in a longer-term uptrend). This indicator works especially well within defined trading ranges, and will give a false signal (likely becoming very extreme) when a trading range is broken and a new trend begins." ... Sentiment Trader

Statistical overview:

68% of readings (1 standard deviation) should be between 41% and 59%
95% of readings (2 standard deviations) should be between 32% and 68%
99% of readings (3 standard deviations) should be between 23% and 77%


Latest readings have turned neutral (thanks to RogerDoger for this...

AAII:
(as of 11/11/2009) 50%
Bullish: 38.62%
Neutral: 22.76%
Bearish: 38.62%






Nov. 5, 2009 AAII Sentiment is showing extreme bearishness, which usually means the market will go up. This is confusing as many of the momentum indicators are very weak, but this sentiment poll is very important which means that a second wind or a third bullish T as Terry Laundry recently wrote should unfold here.

NYSE projecting a late April 2010 low, this date has now also been confirmed on my oscillator for the Toronto Stock Index (TSX), as of Nov. 8.

I now find myself at odds with Terry Laundry and his T system who is looking for a high in March, which is confusing since he is looking for the final high in this bull run in August 2010.

Martin Armstrong in his latest article is still talking about a possible low in this time period (thanks to the editor of Geronimoscalper in answer to I have this clarification... "closing support for the Dow will be at 8600 and 7200 levels. A closing below the first will signal a retest of lows for May, where as a year end closing below 7200 will signal a test of the 5000 level with the most extreme support 3800." also... "the two yearly targets for a major crisis are 2011/12 and 2016."
So the Dow will have to shed a fair bit by year end to turn more bearish which I believe will be the case, it may just be a test of last March, considering the lower NYSE chart below, also consider that the Nikkei and Nasdaq 100 did not put in a lower low in March.

US dollar index is projecting a late jan early feb 2010 hi. All the ducks are lining up in a row, dollar up into jan-feb, crb down into mid feb. TSX chart below still needs to be redone, having trouble with my data supplier so that will be done later.

New work on the CRB index using more accurate software as promised is showing mid Feb as the coming low.

Stalling out on the March 2009 uptrend, a test of the March or July lows looks likely now for a few months. The higher low on the NDX last March does give some hope to the bulls in the long run.

TSX (Toronto Stock Exchange) is showing a trend for a low in April 2010, this is now confirmed. This date is the next major Pi Cycle date (April 16, 2010) as calculated by Martin Armstrong. This chart implies that the coming downtrend is going to be much greater than many bulls are expecting as its signals are coming directly off of the crash of 2008 and early 2009.

Spx looking toppy with an exhaustion island gap, while the US dollar index is looking like it is ready to break out of its downtrend wedge.

Speaking of French, the CAC index is approaching a whopper gap from last years panic, the closing of it could signal the end of wave 3 up and then a wave 4 pullback before another blast into next summer.

Pardon my French, but the NDX sure looks like it has put in an exhaustion gap and a double top.

Oct. 14 update... The sept 23 high has now been taken out, so my forecast which did produce a small pullback has now been breached, nonetheless the internals are weakening as well as momentum seen on chart below and this being the T theory week should still lead to more weakness in coming weeks.

Update Fri Oct 9, oex is testing its highs, next week will be critical as the official T theory date arrives.

Uddate Fri Oct 9, oex is testing its highs, next week will be critical as the official T theory date arrives.

Spx long moving average should be resistance, gap from last year on the SPY chart has been filled according to stockcharts but bigcharts and yahoo show it has not.

A reader asked if I still think the market will go down into March/April 2010, after just reviewing some charts as of Sept. 25 - I think the prediction for a low in March/April has a 100% certainty, in other words I think it is carved in stone. The CRB index is confirmed big time for a low then as well as many other charts.

Sept. 19th Update: Value Line Arithmetic using Yahoo and Stockcharts data is projecting September 23+/- a day for the high, the latest possible would be the week after.

Value Line Geometric index, late Sept looks like the high, there is also a 'T' that peaks then.

Note the small volume by price bars in blue...magnets

There are now several charts pointing to big low next March-April after an Oct.hi. with the exception of Value Line Geometric which is pointing at a Jan. low, things should become clearer as we get closer to those dates, there could be a low in jan followed by a rally and then a final low in March-April.

Diagonal triangle theory says that wedges don't break-out until the 80% area which is in October and this fits with my other projections using other methods on the stock indices.

Nikkei has a trend for a big low in Mar/April 2010 which is in line with Martin Armstrong's view for a final 31 month low from the Oct. 2007 high but that is in disagreement with my projection for the major market index to bottom in mid 2014

Vix wedge should eventually break to the upside around the 80% area as the market goes into a more serious correction, there is a gap on the spx around 900 that will likely be filled. Latest reading on other charts is suggesting by late Sept market should be peaking. T theory is looking for Mid Oct for a final high.

Valueline Geometric is showing a high for mid October 2009 in line with Terry Laundry's call. I have redone the Vix,Vxn and Nikkei which I have found bullish confirmations for in line with this chart. This should be followed by a Jan Low or possibly farther out into March as the Nikkei chart is suggesting, this should become clearer as time goes foreward.

Oscillator forecast for a mid 2014 Low for the Major Market Index, this ties in with Terry Laundry's call for the bottom of this bear market in the 2013-2014 area (see second chart below). I have been aware of this potential 2014 low since 2006 but have been doubtful of it because of the success of Martin Armstrong's Pi Cycle which bottoms in mid 2011, nonetheless it does look like a valid confirmed trend. This 2014 trend started to form in 2001. The last chart is the Kress 60 year cycle (thanks to Kavaron for the heads-up) and sub cycles forecasting a final low in 2014 as multiple cycles converge.

Again the XMI has approached the resistance line from last winter, markets look pretty toppy here but the June 21-22 low I was predicting now looks like it is going to be a high! As indicated on chart above this one, the high signal appeared back in March but I did not notice it on this chart until recently. Nymo on the chart shows an interesting back kiss to the uptrend that was broken which lends support to the idea that these markets are getting toppy in here, just one more surge up in the next week or so should be the top. Stay nimble.

As originally forecast on Traders-Talk.com in early 2007 for a May 2009 low. The forecast still looks correct for a mid june low, off by 1 month back in about Jan.2007, the first chart shows the new forecast of June 2007 evident in late summer 2007.

Canadian Dollar appears to be headed for a high in July 2009 in line with the Gasoline projection that can be seen several posts below.

Value Line Geometric is supposed to show what the average stock is doing. This chart appears to have shown the low quite well. Whether this low is going to hold is in question.

Bottom chart was the original, first chart is latest version which shows the high trend in June... gasoline and the rest of the commodities are headed for a big low next March/April now.

Gasoline Continuous Contract early July 2009 projected hi.

SPY is breaking out of its downtrendline. This looks to be quite bullish, however given the NYSE and IBM signal for a low at the end of Jan. I doubt spx will go far now.

Singapore Dollar vs. US Dollar showing projected peak in July 2008.

As can be seen in the chart below, the forecast from the winter of 2007-2008 for the peak in the Singapore Dollar Vs. the USA in July 2008 was exactly correct.

Martin Armstrong - Discoverer of the 8.6 Year Pi Business Cycle

NORTH AMERICA'S TOP ECONOMIST - EQUITY MAGAZINE - 1990

Discovered in the 1970's by dividing the number of major panics into a given time frame Armstrong's 8.6 year pi cycle (piX1000=3141 days or 8.6 years) has had many direct hits on various market indexes, commodities and currencies producing billions to one odds against it being just a meaningless coincidence. Similar to Benner's Cycle which is based around a 9 year cycle, Armstrong's cycle gives dates down to the day years and decades ahead of time, not just a yearly date as Benner's shows. Armstrong's is much more precise. So much so that the CIA and Chinese government tried to acquire his super-computer model after his amazing prediction of the crash of 1998 to the day. Mr. Armstrong has had his constitutional rights stripped from him, his constitutional right to a speedy trial has been taken away. The Justice System has imprisoned a great man while ingnoring the US Constitution!

Recent events in the world's stock markets show the accuracy of Armstrong's model, the markets sold off right on his forcasted date of Feb 27, 2007. He said in effect that everything would rise up into 2007 -including the stockmarkets, housing and especially hard assets like commodities. The fact that the hard assets peaked last spring (gold copper etc) shows that capital flows are currently focused on the stock markets world-wide and after this panic sell-off is finished it is likely that they will continue up and commodities should resume their bull market for the next major leg up - $100+ a barrel oil and Gold well over $2000 - even 3 or $4000 according to some estimates.
If you believe Timer's Digest top market timer Don Wolanchuk we will be entering into epicenter of primary wave 3 (in Elliot Wave terminology) that is going to take the Dow to 20,000 in the coming years, gold and commodities should keep moving up too.

My concern here is housing - if it keeps breaking down in mid 2009 as my own work is suggesting I am not sure how the stock market will stay strong, nonetheless the next major trough for the economy should be Martin's 2011 date. I think it possible that gold and commodities will go up into fall 2009, which would then lead to the 2011.45 trough, just as the year 2000 was the peak in the markets and led to the low a couple of years later.

Martin Armstrong finally getting a trial after 7 years in an American Prison.

NORTH AMERICA'S TOP ECONOMIST EQUITY MAGAZINE - 1990

Is the reason Martin is in prison because as he says:"I know too much"- about all the crooked activity on the stock exchanges about which the government's regulatory bodies want the public to believe are all above board decent operations.

Or is there a darker reason Martin is in prison, one suggested publicly on the Yahoo Kondratyev forum by its owner - Eric Von Baranov who claimed a CIA insider of his acquaintance told him that "Martin Armstrong had to be stopped". Stopped at running an AI super-computer model with 32,000 variables for the purpose of predicting financial markets while managing several billion dollars. The same computer model by the way that the CIA and the Chinese government tried to acquire from Armstrong and were denied. The government was upset that Martin had 'X'ed out all his hard drives, but in light of the fact that the CIA tried to get his model from him, why wouldn't he X it all out, why should $60 Million dollars of programming and original thought be handed over to the US Government for free?

The same government that went against the original principle of Thomas Jefferson of not letting government create large debts. The debt is now over $8 Trillion and Bush signed a bill allowing them to take it up to 9 Trillion. The unfunded liabilities for pensions etc. are now about 50 Trillion dollars, this money will never be paid out. As Armstrong said, politicians are by and large a bunch of crooks. Modern Rome - the USA is now in the process of inflating the value of the dollar down in order a try and escape their liabilities. The original reason for rebelling against England over taxation without representation is now coming back to bite Americans. Did politicians ask Americans if they could borrow so much money through the bond markets that it would jeopardize the whole financial health of the country, potentially turning the USA into a bankrupt and ruined country as Rome was?

Is it a coincidence that several months after denying the CIA's request, Mr. Armstrong found himself being accused of stealing hundreds of millions of dollars (even though as he says, strangely there was not one wire transfer of the money into any of Armstrong's personal accounts).

The government claims Martin is hiding gold bars and a bust of Julius Caesar and so has him in the roughest prison with murders and drug dealers (unlike Martha Stewart's country home style confinement) on contempt, but as Mr. Armstrong says he could easily make several times that amount if he were free to do his business for the past half decade and more. He was the highest paid economist in the USA back in the 1980's and 1990's.

Is it a coincidence that shortly after Mr. Armstrong's detention, his banker Edmond Safra from Republic Bank was murdered in his Monaco Penthouse which had four machine gun equipped guards? Was Safra murdered because as Armstrong stated he was going to be testifying at Armstrong's hearing and some Russian Mafia that had done money laundering on Safra's watch decided not to risk Safra spilling the beans. Or, was Safra murdered because he knew what really happened at Republic Bank to the money Armstrong is being accused of mis-handling? We will never know, since dead men don't talk.

So much for Armstrong's constitutional right to a "speedy trial". The courts can obviously now do anything they want to. Perhaps that is why President George W. Bush said, "The constitution is just a piece of paper". Real power flows from the barrel of a gun as Mao Tse Tung said and all serious politicians know it.

Regardless of whether Martin Armstrong hid losses or not, his constitutional rights have been ignored as America drifts towards fascism as financial advisor James Dines has noted. All Americans should be alarmed at what is happening to their beloved country. They should be alarmed at a reactionary President that can tell a big lie (there were no weapons of mass destruction - the original excuse for invading a sovereign nation - Iraq) and then proceed to murder hundreds of thousands of innocent people at the same time proclaiming "GOD BLESS AMERICA". God has nothing to do with it and any God worth their salt must be totally disgusted at a hypocrite President using God's name in vain.

Distinguished thinkers like Gore Vidal warned back in early 2003 that invading Iraq would be a huge mistake, that it would be like stirring up a hornets nest. Now, Iraq is on the verge of a civil war as of mid September 2006 and the whole Muslim world is inflamed over the new Pope's quotation from a past Roman leader that the Muslim religion is evil. At this point in history it does not look too promising for peace between cultures on this sad little planet.

If readers have a look at Armstrong's article on the PrincetonEconomics blog (see link on main page) site about the monetary crisis in ancient Rome, they can get a sense of how history repeats, how bullies hide behind flags and destroy the civil liberties that once existed in past golden era's of a countries history. All these things have happened over and over in many civilizations of the past.

Apparently civilization's leaders never learn from history and are thereby condemned to live the lessons of the past over and over. China is now in the process of over-taking the USA economically, as James Dines has said: the 21st century belongs to China and the USA can be expected to become more and more desperate to hold onto past glory as the decades pass.

Interesting to note that recent historians now think one of the major factors in the collapse of the Roman Empire was being involved in wars against the Persian Empire - now Iran and Iraq etc. Emperor Busch (original German spelling) decided to continue the fight and go for that Black Gold - Texas Tea. Others have pointed out that major countries entering into civil wars and doing ground battles have found it futile many times in history... it is a recipe for disaster. Check out... http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/200601009_bushs_nuclear_apocalypse