Wednesday, April 16, 2014

Gold Channels suggesting more downside into June 2014

Could Gold be knocked down into Armstrong's 1000 area this June?

Monday, April 14, 2014

GDX update

I have deleted the forecast for a low in the gdx gold stocks index for next Sept., the current forecast is in agreement with nugt and dust, the gold stocks should bottom in mid to late June as they did last year.

Thursday, April 10, 2014

Saturday, April 05, 2014

Gold/Xau Chart

This chart shows interesting relations between gold and the xau (gold and silver stocks index) Based on the position of the CCI at the top this indicates gold going lower if the past behavior repeats.

Sunday, March 30, 2014

US Treasury Bonds headed for big low in late 2015 or early 2016

This means interest rates are going  to go up lots which is going to make servicing debt harder leading to a crisis of liquidity and civil unrest as people start to realize that the government is broke and they will not have pensions as Martin Armstrong has been warning. Can energy self sufficiency save the system? Armstrong does not think so.

Silver Standard 2019 Hi

Silver Wheaton March 2014 low

Saturday, March 29, 2014

Friday, March 28, 2014

Gold Bull Flag with support trend lines

Gold should now start to move back up going into the summer, Hadik is looking for 1425 initially, pnf is projecting 1440.

Thursday, March 27, 2014

Silver (slv) Coiling

Slv should find support on the lower trend line and eventually break above the upper trend line producing a summer rally.

Tuesday, March 25, 2014

Friday, March 21, 2014

Wednesday, February 05, 2014

Gold low mid March (update)

Update March 20...bottom should be coming in soon, perhaps next week or by end of March,  of note is that Eric Hadik is looking for  a rally into April/May. I am still seeing this summer as a big high for gold and silver, 2015 may still go lower  for the metals, as Barrick's chart is projecting an  Oct. 2015 low right on the peak of Armstrong's  pi cycle.
Update Feb. 23.... 
trends are still showing mid march low is coming for multiple charts, this is the most probable outcome now. macd and cci are also rolling over on gold stock indices.

Sunday, January 26, 2014

Gold, alternate view, showing low is in and rally until Sept. 2014

Different data source is giving a different trend, if Gold breaks through its down trend-line from last  year then this chart  is most likely correct.

Wednesday, January 08, 2014

Thursday, January 02, 2014

Warning on Gold

Gold could still go down more, despite its strong showing at the start of 2014, if you look at the yearly and quarterly charts of GLD on those charts do not look very bullish, Martin Armstrong is still saying Gold could go between 850 and 1050 going into Q1 2014 which contradicts my oscillator for the silver low in late December which given the strong rally today looks like it has legs but we must be on guard of  the rally stalling out.  The fact that DUST the 3x leveraged bear fund did not get to up as high as it did last June even though Gold went to about the June lows, does not argue well for the bearish case though.

Saturday, December 28, 2013

GDX Gold Stock Index breadth charts...

Gold with momentum and rsi divergences...


Saturday, December 21, 2013

Silver - Major Low December 30 +/- a few days

This is a very powerful signal as it is coming directly off of the 2008 crash, the symmetry is very strong on this chart, new lows after late December are unlikely and as Martin Armstrong has written after a high in Sept. 2014, lows going into 2015 on the pi cycle model peak may just be a test of the 2013-2014 low. Gold should move along with Silver (although sometimes they are slightly different in their timing).

Thursday, December 19, 2013

Silver low End of December or Feb. 2014 to be followed by strong rally (Gold and Silver) into early September (Pi Cycle Date)

UPDATE - After doing more work on the silver charts, I am again seeing a big low at the end of December which is in conflict with the most recent chart below, of the two charts the Dec. low chart is the strongest so Eric Hadik may be correct that the final low on this move will be in late December, however as Gold and Silver look set to peak next September that could lead to bigger lows going into 2015 or perhaps just a test of these lows. These charts are in agreement with Martin Armstrong's latest views... "Gold had a chance to at least rally and clean out some shorts, but could not close above 1243. The Dow is in the same position. We may be setting up for a MAJOR protraction of these trends for the next peak in the Economic Confidence Model 8.6 Year Wave in 2024. This implies there is the danger of a Cycle Inversion. So far, it appears we have this Jan-Feb turning point showing up in many markets globally. What makes a low at that time could rally into the next ECM turning point in 2014 warning we may then turn down into 2015.75 and flip into a rally going into 2020. We simply have to monitor the Reversals and the Cycles." ...

Saturday, December 14, 2013

Thursday, December 05, 2013

Dow - Gold Relation

Ron Rosen 60 year market veteran has made the argument the dow is  going to crash and gold will start back up...

This  chart shows the relationship between the two....

Thursday, November 28, 2013

Tuesday, November 19, 2013

Thursday, November 07, 2013

Silver low late December 2013

Silver and GDX (gold stocks etf) are both showing trends for developing lows in late December and late Nov. respectively.

Saturday, October 26, 2013

Gold Miners on track for a late Dec to Early Jan Hi

Gold and Silver as well as their stock indices should all move up in the intermediate term into late Dec or early Jan, then a consolidation for a few weeks before the final high of this rally (not the ultimate high).

Wednesday, October 16, 2013

Silver - Headed for a strong rally into Summer 2014

Price projection levels are estimates.

Monday, October 14, 2013

Gold may have hit bottom last week

My original forecast a few weeks ago was that Gold would go down until October 8-10, on the weekend I did this chart which agrees with my first work. Update Oct. 14th Evening: While this signal produce a good bounce, with the futures down tonight the forecast below may still prove to be the low around Oct. 22.

Sunday, October 13, 2013

Gold Long Term with Elliot Wave Count and CCI

Notice how 1980 was more parabolic and the cci shot much high making 2011 look weak, this argues the final rally is yet to come, probably around 2016-17, then the next big low should be around 2032 based on my oscillator's trends and it coincides with Armrstrong's Pi Cycle Model Peak in 2032.

Monday, October 07, 2013

Gold - October 22, 2013 Low

This chart is what will probably happen...

Friday, October 04, 2013

Silver may have reached support

A potential bull flag getting ready to break-out to the upside.

Friday, September 27, 2013

Gold - 60 minute chart break-out - initial target 1410

I am showing a trend on the US dollar for a low just before mid Oct. so this should drive gold up  as the debt ceiling issue heats up again. - update - I am getting December for a low in the dollar using a dollar etf, I will do more work on the charts to confirm. Tradermama over at at the gold and mining forum sees that the dollar started a negative trend in Sept.  using her pnf methods.

  Previous projection for gold low around Oct. 10th has now been invalidated after the  large up move. The oscillator signals lose their confirmation especially if the signal is not a long term signal.

Wednesday, September 25, 2013

Gary Wagner's Bearish Elliot Wave Count...

I am not saying I agree with this bearish view but it is worth consideration...

Friday, August 30, 2013

Gold low late Sept. low - Update - indicator has shifted again and is now suggesting around October 25 for the low

Graphic below this post was done as an estimate based partly on other people's work which obviously has been wrong, my oscillator has shown both the high and the developing low now as of Sept. 13th.

Saturday, August 17, 2013

NUGGET Kite Formation

Projection is for the Direxion 3X Gold Stock ETF to peak in either December 2013 or March 2014, depending on whether it is the GDX or HUI index, further work will be needed on these charts but there is going to be a large rally between Sept and late year or possibly into early 2014.

Sunday, July 14, 2013

Dow, Gold, and Dollar Long term projections

The top chart shows the US Dollar Index peaking this year and bottoming in the 2020 time frame, that date is in agreement with Martin Armstrong's Pi Cycle model which forecasts a major low for the economy and most likely the end of the debt party since FDR's new deal and government thinking they never have to pay their debts back.

The second chart below is from Gann Global it shows that they think the best match for Gold is the 1976 rally which would see Gold go to $8000 in today's dollars, than may be a little high but on the other hand we are facing a debt implosion of unprecedented levels in all history.

Armstrong in his latest article says the Dow Jones Industrials can go up to 43,000 by late 2015 in what he refers to as a phase transition (physics thing applied to human capital flows), this projection does not agree with my chart in that my chart is calling for the final high in 2023-24, also Armstrong is ignoring what his computer projected using Elliot wave for the Dow's final high to be in the 2024 area, its not easy seeing the future all the time is it Marty!  Maybe he will be right about that level by 2015 though, I am not sure about price, my work is more about time although sometimes price is easy to see too.

The Dollar bottoming in 2020 is in line with Armstrongs'  8.6/51.6 year pi cycle model, the US and Europe are headed for the dumster after 2015 and that is why Gold will shine brightly, the death of Socialism is coming. Gann Global says the pattern match would see Gold go up to about $8000 which may be a little high, on the other hand we are headed for a debt implosion of unprecedented levels.

Monday, July 01, 2013

Thursday, June 27, 2013

Gold Futures Vs. XAU Index

Market timer SemiBizz on thinks the XAU will go down to 56, this chart shows XAU on the top and Gold Futures on the bottom for comparison purposes. I remain skeptical that XAU will go that low but he could be right.

Monday, June 24, 2013

Gold low July 10, 2013, high Oct-Nov 2016

This chart shows the low should happen this year as it gets down to the 1000 area of support. So low should be July 10 this summer and high 2016. Hope you enjoy my 'Gold Theme' chart design. ;)  One caveat is that my GDX chart is showing a possible low this October but that is the gold stocks.

Thursday, June 20, 2013

Gold low for July or August

The oscillator is pointing towards July 10th for a serious low, which also happens to be the pi cycle time applied to the debt crisis which is about July 7th.
Note the RSI approaching the 1999 oversold level. The low may happen in July/August or as late as October which the GDX chart has a trend for, that could imply a re-test of support then. The 1000 area appears to be solid support on the chart regardless of when Gold gets to it.

Monday, May 27, 2013

Smart Money (commercials) Most Bullish on Gold in 5 Years, Large and Small Traders most bearish since 2008 and 2001 respectively

 Commercial participants in the gold market, also known as “smart money” given that they work in the industry as opposed to being speculative trend followers, are the most bullish on gold in nearly five years.

As prices declined over the last few months, commercials - those involved in the production, processing or merchandising of a commodity - have been busy buying futures contracts and covering short positions, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Their position rose from a low of a net short 269,270 contracts in October 2012 to the present net short position of 84,122, notes a report from Euro Pacific Canada today. This means commericials initiated new long positions, and covered previous shorts, resulting in an increase in their total net position by just over 185,000 contracts.

It’s a different case for the other two groups that the CFTC tracks in the commodity futures markets.

Large traders, mostly made up of hedge funds that are often trend followers, are currently net long 83,726 contracts - the most bearish reading since the October 2008 bottom. The group tends to be the most bearish at market bottoms and the most bullish at market tops, suggests Euro Pacific Canada analyst Dima Kash.

The third group, small traders, are those that control a very small portion of open interest in futures contracts, but their actions tend to help gauge retail sentiment nonetheless. Historically, they have been on the wrong side of the gold market at key inflection points, according to Mr. Kash. The group this month had a net short position of 1,704 contracts, an extremely bearish reading not seen since February 2001 when the gold market was about to begin its decade-long bull-market run.

Mr. Kash’s conclusion? “The current dynamics between the three groups signal that a significant intermediate-term bottom is forming in the gold market. This does not necessarily mean that prices cannot head lower, but it does mean that prices are attracting commercial buying interest – the smart money – at levels not seen since the financial crisis when gold declined from about $1,000 an ounce and hit a critical low at about $700 an ounce,” he said.

He thinks the key for investors now is to look for signs of a bottom, and technicals point to some important clues.

Click link at top of this post to see Mr. Kash’s full report (pdf), which Euro Pacific has given us permission to republish in its entirety. It provides some interesting charts on the three group’s positioning in the futures market, as well as his technical analysis.

Sunday, May 26, 2013

Gold long term trendline support

The bullish case for Gold....

Silver finding support

Thursday, May 16, 2013

Sunday, May 12, 2013