Wednesday, November 25, 2009


I do not have a clear read on where a top will form (as of Dec 24, 2009), I do think a low will form in April as I have posted here with the NYSE chart.
Markets continue to break upwards but bullish sentiment is getting fairly high as can be seen on graphic above from .... http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=114501

Monday, November 16, 2009

Upper trendline resistance of 1150. Small cap indices like the Russell 2000 are diverging as investors are taking money out of them, the leadership of the blue chips is defensive and suggestive of problems ahead.

Friday, November 13, 2009

Nysi divergence is not a good sign for the bulls...


Thursday, November 12, 2009

Baltic Dry Index sell signal. This index is for shipping rates of dry goods (lots of commodities which are considered to be leading indicators for how much future economic activity will occur, for example concrete, copper, steel etc. This is a short sell signal based on this last leg of the rally but this rally is a second attempt to break above the first failed rally so this could lead to a significant test of the lows a year ago.


Wednesday, November 11, 2009

S&P Price Oscillator Is Three Standard Deviations From Mean: 99% Outlier Market, this shows the market is currently over-bought. Selecto over at Traders-talk has posted this chart from Sentiment Trader

"When the Price Oscillator reaches an extreme, it often marks short-term exhaustion in buying or selling pressure. We generally use readings over 59% to indicate an excessive amount of buying pressure (particularly when in a longer-term downtrend), and readings below 41% to indicate that the selling may be overdone (especially when in a longer-term uptrend). This indicator works especially well within defined trading ranges, and will give a false signal (likely becoming very extreme) when a trading range is broken and a new trend begins." ... Sentiment Trader

Statistical overview:

68% of readings (1 standard deviation) should be between 41% and 59%
95% of readings (2 standard deviations) should be between 32% and 68%
99% of readings (3 standard deviations) should be between 23% and 77%


Latest readings have turned neutral (thanks to RogerDoger for this...

AAII:
(as of 11/11/2009) 50%
Bullish: 38.62%
Neutral: 22.76%
Bearish: 38.62%






Nov. 5, 2009 AAII Sentiment is showing extreme bearishness, which usually means the market will go up. This is confusing as many of the momentum indicators are very weak, but this sentiment poll is very important which means that a second wind or a third bullish T as Terry Laundry recently wrote should unfold here.

Wednesday, November 04, 2009

NYSE projecting a late April 2010 low, this date has now also been confirmed on my oscillator for the Toronto Stock Index (TSX), as of Nov. 8.

I now find myself at odds with Terry Laundry and his T system who is looking for a high in March, which is confusing since he is looking for the final high in this bull run in August 2010.

Martin Armstrong in his latest article is still talking about a possible low in this time period (thanks to the editor of Geronimoscalper in answer to I have this clarification... "closing support for the Dow will be at 8600 and 7200 levels. A closing below the first will signal a retest of lows for May, where as a year end closing below 7200 will signal a test of the 5000 level with the most extreme support 3800." also... "the two yearly targets for a major crisis are 2011/12 and 2016."
So the Dow will have to shed a fair bit by year end to turn more bearish which I believe will be the case, it may just be a test of last March, considering the lower NYSE chart below, also consider that the Nikkei and Nasdaq 100 did not put in a lower low in March.