Thursday, May 06, 2010

July 5 Update,  VXN Nasdaq Volatility Index is not making new highs as the market has come down, so despite the price charts looking bad, many of the internals are diverging which should lead to a rally now.



May 26 update... a closer look at the NYSE signal looks like June 4 +/- a day will most likely be the low and a good time to buy stock markets in general for a few months until markets start to turn down again.

May 6 Update,  As originally forecast on the Nov. 4 2009 post on this site, the NYSE is making a low in this time period, the time has shifted forward a few weeks from last November's predicted date, as best as I can determine the final low on this run will be late May or even the first week of June.

22 comments:

  1. Late May/June low, then resume the head to new highs???

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  2. I do not know if new high will come but I am seeing another big low for the Nasdaq next October, any rally into the summer will just be waiting for the next bloodbath going into October and then there is Marty Armstrong's Pi cycle low for June 2011. This is not a bull market since 2007 and I doubt the bear ends until at least mid 2011, if you look at the major market index post on this site you will see a trend for a low in mid 2014 which is close to what Terry Laundry's T theory says, this debt crisis is not going away anytime soon. For now there should be a good buying opp. around the end of this month is what it looks like.

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  3. When will they all learn that the free printing of money and not being held accountable to their own actions will bankrupt them and all of us with them. Just saw on the wire how the EU is bailing out itself with the help of the IMF and of course the Federal Reserve. I begin to wonder if the decisions they all make effects them at all. Because if it did, I don't think they would be making those decisions.

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  4. "Whatever you know from economics, books, degrees is wrong in making money."

    Why YOU think the Either side wins?? and all the Christians are broke all the time, dying on wars.....this is to kill the White Christians, Black and Latino Christians !! See the game.

    DEbt from all the nations will NEVER BE REPAID. The banking conglomerate with papa rothschild and serfs Bernanke, Strauss-kahn, Greenspan, etc along with the top 5 billionaires list are all in the game to bankrupct America and sell out all the Christians down the slippery slope and they too stupid to get what's really going on.

    4% of a certain religion control 96% of America. The only way out of it is if the ARmy who is Christian revolts and takes back America for the superiors above although some are Christian most are controlled by the other lot.

    Search Menachem Begin 1982 Quote: All races are parasites compared to us and will serve us and kneel down to us and Jerusalem will be the Captial. Go check this quote.

    Trust me this is NOT messiah plan. This is the anti XXXX plan.

    Get this "problem" fixed and America will reign supreme and keep it a Christian State and Israel is a Jewish state.

    Christians first.

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  5. Well Mr. Christians First, seems to me the Jesus was a Jew too. The politicians who spend the taxpayers money and credit away have to take the lion's share of the responsibility for all the government debt in the West. As Martin Armstrong said, "politicians are a bunch of crooks". It is easy to spend other people's money. This is why he has advocated scrapping the income tax and just having a sales tax, people should not be taxed for working hard and saving money. A user pay system is the way to go.

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  6. Russ, I agree. If US GDP is based on 70% consumer spending then a use tax would generate the revenue the country needs. Because everyone or most of them are brainwashed to spend and spend on useless items that fall apart because that is how the whole system is built upon in the US. Spend!

    It was Edward Bernays who was the Father of Propaganda in the US. He says the US citizens are stupid because they believe what their media publishes. They go back for more of the idiot things in life expecting a different result. BP crisis is an example. If anyone cared about what is taking place with regards to humanity they would join together and boycott the use of BP gasoline. I sit here and watch how BP has a strong hold on the US government and hasn't really done anything of value to contain the situation. Instead of capping the problem they rather siphon the oil first, profits first...humanity second.

    Warrior, your philosophical speeches are interesting. I have done the research you had sent and the light is shining bright, more then I can handle. I sometimes wonder if I should have taken the 'Red Pill' instead.

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  7. Hi, I appreciate the calmness of your site. It is noiseless and cool. Only thing that bothered me was that if it was really active!. Your today's comment (26/5) reassured me it is on! Thank you for your kind informations.

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  8. btw, i did notice that the internals were diverging yesterday and therefore a rally was likely, from that perspective it looks like the markets are bottoming now, but my oscillator is pointing at next week for the final low, it could be off by a week or even more, but usually it is correct.

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  9. Dear Russ, let's hope low will come in the next 1-2 weeks, if situation changes please keep us informed. I respect your work and I have tried to verify it, so far it works admirably well !. Best, Al.

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  10. Dear Russ,
    Today Armstrong released a new essay (@ Phases of the Great Depression) which, I think, verifies your prognosis of 1.new lows ahead, 2. two targets of June and August (whatever unfolds in June the opposite will happen in August).

    That is in line also with previous comments of Warrior of the Universal Being.

    Main difference I could notice is the Gold forecast. Armstrong believes that it will break through its Primary Channel (circa 1300-1400 i think) and then fall back and support on it, afterwards move to serious new price levels, while Warrior believes that after Aug. 10, Gold will have a waterfall effect reaching, if I am correct, the 740 level.

    Any comments from you upon these? Best, Al.

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  11. Hi Al,

    Yes I read Martin's new article. I have read all his articles.

    I have a chart on this blog for Silver which is showing a low on the next main pi cycle date in June 2011. Notice how silver is rolling over. I have just looked at the gold chart, it may have a trend for a high at the end of this year, but I will have to do more work on it when i get the time. Marty may be right, not a guy to ignore.

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  12. From Al to Russ,
    Thanks for info, you are too kind to share all these with us. I wonder if your low estimation for the next 1-2 weeks is stil valid. Best, Al.

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  13. Thank you Russ, have enjoyed following your writings. Look forward to your next update..
    all best to you.

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  14. Dear Russ, Congratulations for your accurate prognosis of June 4th + 1 day low! I add my 'voice; to the latter anonymous; any update will be highly appreciated. Al

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  15. Hi Russ, updated will be appreciated! Thx!

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  16. Well the June 4 signal only produced a short rally. I have a vix signal that looks like a low about now but Eric Hadik's forecast is interesting below...

    June 29, 2010 INSIIDE Track Update from Eric S. Hadik www.insiidetrack.com

    06/29/10 - INSIIDE Track Update -- Stock Indices have dropped to new lows after fulfilling their upside objective for the month of June - by rallying to 10,580--10,620/DJIA and peaking on June 18/21st.



    They generated outside-week/2 Close Reversal sell signals on Friday (June 25th) and began to validate these on Monday, when the daily 21 MACs began to turn back down. When they dropped below Friday’s lows, it confirmed this sell signal and ultimately led to the weekly 21 MACs turning back down today (another important confirmation of the weekly sell signal).



    The next level of confirmation would be monthly closes below 10,136/DJIA, 1084.2/SPU & 1850/NQU. If this takes place tomorrow, there would be one remaining signal needed to confirm a 3-6 month peak… the weekly trends turning down. A weekly close below 9,869/DJIA & 1730/NQU would accomplish this and allow these indices to join the SPU.



    If these two signals are generated, it would show that the Indices are beginning to exit their consolidation and enter a ‘c’ wave decline...It is possible that Stock Indices would set a low during the 71-73 week cycle - that comes into play from July 12th--30th - and then see a sharp bounce into the 14-15 week cycle that arrives on August 2--13th.



    There have even been signs that this 14-15 week cycle is extending to 16 weeks, based on the last 4 highs in the NQ-100 (June 1--5th, 2009, Sept. 21--25th, 2009, Jan. 11--15th & April 26--30th), each of which was separated by 16 weeks. This was reinforced by the June 21st peak that arrived exactly 8 weeks (midpoint of 16-week cycle) from the April 26th peak.



    As a result, an 8-week high-high-(?) Cycle Progression AND a 16-week high-high-high-high-(?) Cycle Progression align during the week of August 16--20th.



    Even if this is simply considered in the context of a normal, 1-week margin of error - for the 14-15 week cycle - it still makes a secondary peak possible on August 16--20th.



    That would allow plenty of time between the earliest date of the 71-73 week cycle (July 12th; which is corroborated by a 5-week low-low-low Cycle Progression between the May 6th & June 8th lows and the weekly sell signal of June 25th, which could last for 3 weeks) and the latest date of the 8/16-week cycle (August 20th) for two distinct, intermediate turning points (a low and then a high) to take hold.



    If this is going to be the case, I would expect a substantial drop between now and July 12--16th..."



    Thank you for your interest in our services. The next two weeks could be dramatic!

    INSIIDE Track Trading // www.insiidetrack.com
    630-637-0967 -- vc 630-637-0971 -- fx

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  17. Dear Russ, nice to have you back. I appreciate your honesty of presenting also Hadik's different opinion. And the winner is...
    AL

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  18. Dear Russ,

    thanks for your posts, but it would be great if you would update the site more!

    Thanks

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  19. I really enjoyed your post here. It's a great idea and good work. i appreciate for your good work. Thank you for your kind information.


    britain

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  20. I have to say Warrior's prediction on Grains was totally wrong. The dollar was right on and Gold not a chance in hell that it’s going to fall this year. The one thing I don't know if he\she knows is a negative correlation between the USDX and Commodities. If USDX goes down; Grains go up and vice-versa. With all the human manipulation in the market it is difficult to come close to a forecast of what the outcome of any part of the market will be. We are not experiencing FREEMARKET more like a CONTROLLED MARKET. The only way to forecast an outcome like this would be to go back test what the results were like the last time when the WORLD GOVERNMENTS intervened and CONTROLLED ECONOMIES. For all you history buffs out there I don’t recall anything of this magnitude: ALL Nations are DEBT, Unemployment higher than what is reported, a greater population of greed than in the 30s, GOLD price are far beyond 1930 levels, TAXes in today’s society is far worse than the 1930s, pay rates haven’t changed, and sheep are in greater numbers than ever before. USDX is the world reserve currency which is now the dollar carry trade and has over flooded the market. The USDX shouldn’t be valued were it is at today with the FEDs discount rate as low as it is…in history. This equation we are taught A + B = C isn’t turning out to be true. What is TRUTH anymore?

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  21. On the other hand i have to say that Warriors prediction on Coffee (jo)is a big winner, too bad i had not the faith to follow it. For the rest, time will tell. Al

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  22. Check out a three month chart on Oats and Coffee. Notice the same trend, just shear coincidence.

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