Sunday, August 22, 2010

Terry Laundry's work with his confidence indicator in the link below is very interesting, this in addition to his T theory work and advance decline charts is showing more trouble coming our way. He is looking for August 26 to be a pivotal time and then a rapid decline into June or July of 2011. My work is suggesting a pause in between with an October low to be followed by a rally and then the final bottom coming in on Martin Armstrong's Pi Cycle date in June 2011. The housing index chart is also pointing to a low for mid 2011.

http://ttheory.typepad.com/files/t-theory-confidence-indicatorpdf-.pdf

16 comments:

  1. Hi Russ,

    What kind of level would Dow ends in June 2011 per this theory? Thank you.

    Gary

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  2. Hi Russ,

    What level will VIX rest in Oct 2010 and June 2011 based on the T Theory. I saw you had made very good forecast in April. Thanks.

    Gary

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  3. Gary,

    Martin Armstrong has written that he does not think a low in June 2011 will take out the March 2009 lows. Perhaps just a test of those levels will happen. I don't know what level it will get to. I doubt anyone else does either.

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  4. Well, he got the 8/26 turn right but in the wrong direction.

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  5. Hi Russ,

    Any views on the recent rapid market turns? You still hold your view? Thanks,

    Gary

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  6. hi Russ,
    so according to Marty Armstrong, Gold/Silver will hit bottom in June? its not clear to me,
    are these temporary lows?

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  7. Where did you read that Martin Armstrong is looking for a gold low in June 2011? If he thinks that, they will be a temporary low, as he is looking for at least $5000 gold when confidence is lost in the US dollar. I have a long projection for the US dollar for a low around 2015.

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  8. in your blog, by yourself last years' december of 2009, you discussed a major low in silver /precious metals by june 2011 according to the pi-cycle.

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  9. Anon, You are confusing Armstrong's pi cycle date with what I am predicting. The Silver trend on my oscillator for a low in mid or even fall of 2011 is coinciding with Armstrong's Pi Cycle major confidence low. The pi cycle itself does not predict what markets will form highs or lows, it just shows turning points in confidence. For example: in summer of 1999 the pi model had a turn which turned out to be the low in gold, but nobody knew that would be the low in gold by using the pi cycle before it actually happened. Silver may end up forming a low in the fall of 2011 rather than June from what I am now seeing, the oscillator can shift sometimes or even become invalidated if it is violated too much, usually long term projections are not violated but the markets are very volatile now so violations can happen as they appear to have done on the NDX projection.

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  10. hI Russ, i am Jason by the way, Martin Armstrong just released today his latest article about Gold,
    i read it vaguely, but i need your help..
    is he suggesting a temporary test of support in the coming month of october before resuming??
    thanx

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  11. Looks like Marty is looking at September as a possible high to be followed by some consolidation for a few weeks and also a possible change in trend which could take Gold down into the next Pi Cycle date of June 2011, that would be extremely bullish according to Marty.

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  12. so according to him Gold/Silver will fall in price as early as next month for 9 consecutive months until june 2011 , before it resumes its uptend and shoots for 5000$ into 2016??
    jason

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  13. on www.zerohedge.com there was an article on how paper Gold will decouple from the real bullion, confirming Mr Soros prediction that Gold is the ultimate bubble........so if paper gold crashes to 100/oz on the comex, while the physical bullion is traded for 20 or 50k an ounce,how would Marty's analysis hold water??
    jason

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  15. Anyone else see the coincidence of Terry Laundry's sudden surprise death in 2012 after 2 years of the market not doing what his T theory said it would do? He built a following over his lifetime but it seems at the height of his fame, just when everyone was watching, the market did not collapse as he said it would. He took a lot of heat and defended himself with his weekly forecast. After 100 weeks though, he died unexpectedly in his sleep. People lost fortunes betting based on his predictions over those 24 months. The Fed's intervention (remember "quantitative easing") may have removed the natural ebb and flow of the market on which T theory was based. It may have been too stressful for the man to have endured and he succumbed. Just wondering.

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  16. Hi Mark,

    That is an interesting point, very sad. Terry did do some very good work overall.

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