Sunday, November 25, 2012

God changes his mind on Gold

Nice to see Martin Armstrong has changed his Gold Peak date to agree with my forecast of 2016.

3 comments:

  1. A question about your signal. How often does the oscillator signal break the trend line (say predicting the Jan 2013 USD peak or Russell Jan 2013 bototm)? And if it does, does that negate the forecast?


    Also do you have a view of the Yen and Japanese bonds? There is lots of talk of a debt collapse in Japan (Kyle Bass etc). I believe Armstrong calls the top near 2015.

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    Replies
    1. Regarding my first question - in your USD chart that the lower trend intersect to Jan 2013. But the upper trend line on the signal intersects in mid Sept (the dollar low) as shown. But what about the mid June and early July spikes? Why doesn't it negate the mid Sept low?

      http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-CFD_8J_gAug/UHl9rmTRwDI/AAAAAAAAADY/SJIP_tg57Xo/s1600/US+Dollar+High+Jan+2013,+Snipped.JPG

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  2. Jeff: The oscillator can have about a 30% spillover of other spikes, the best signals can be confirmed on multiple timeframes. For example the long trend of the new sp500 chart above that I just posted has confirmation on multiple time frames and it is such a long signal that it is unlikely to be broken, the longer the signal the higher the reliability. The current US dollar trend into Jan for a high is vulnerable because it is only a daily signal and it is fairly short.

    On Japan, Armstrong is looking for a collapse possibly next year, but he also has said the US could collapse next summer too but probably after the 2015 hi is more likely. Armstrong says lots of things, his interpretation of his model is not always right, but he is very good just the same. I just don't like the way he has treated some of the people that helped him when he was in prison but that is a separate issue.

    My data for japan is not up to date and dial data changed some of the signals so its going to take some time to get it all straightened out.

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