Sunday, May 26, 2013

Gold long term trendline support

The bullish case for Gold....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=vTYfG4WvJPs#t=873s


4 comments:

  1. Russ:

    How does this fit in with your determination of an April 2013 low followed by a summer 2013 high and June-July 2014 low?

    Thanks,

    Alex

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  2. Alex: That's a good question! If the long term trend-line in the video is breached then the Gold price obviously will be in serious trouble, perhaps that could happen after a short term rally into the summer? We know that there are going to be some dramatic turns after July/August, I also am seeing a high for the dollar with summer. Martin Armstrong has been suggesting that most of the damage to gold could be over this year and perhaps a bit more down into early to mid 2014 which is what I see as you know. For now I believe Gold and Silver are oversold but others think its going lower, it is a dangerous market at this time.

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  3. Russ:

    Yes, it looks like there are some conflicting signals. A dollar high with summer would be consistent with the usual beginning of seasonal strength for gold with the end of July. All of this would be consistent with the idea that most of the damage to gold could be over for this year, but not the idea of gold going substantially lower into 2014.

    In reviewing some of your predictions, I noticed that you are often right on timing a turn but sometimes miss picking the direction. Is it possible that your summer 2013 high may actually be a low?

    It does look like a dangerous market. Maybe it is best to look at short time horizons for now in making trading and investing decisions.

    Bests,

    Alex

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  4. I need to do some more work on the charts, I am seeing a possible trend for GDX the Gold miners index for a low in mid summer but I have not confirmed it yet. For now gold is coiling on the hourly charts with a nice triangle formation and should either break out to the upside or downside soon, I think it will break to the upside but we shall see.

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