Update Friday April 23;  Market continues higher, signal appears to have only produced a very short term pull-back, still divergence happening in the vix, a more serious pull-back should be coming.

 5 days ago I wrote on the post below that I thought the banking index looked like it was going to peak this week, today the SEC charged Goldman Sachs with Fraud and the banking index and stock market in general is crashing now after a double top on the minute charts yesterday and a gap down today. News comes to satisfy technicals.

The Philadelphia Banking Index has trend which is likely showing a top for the banking index the week of April 12, 2010.

UPDATE MARCH 28,2010

- CRB Index has a trend for a low Oct. 2011
- Canadian Dollar has a trend for a low around Sept. 2011 (this is roughly in agreement with the CRB forecast, the CDN. Dollar is percieved to be a commodity currency
-US Dollar now looks like it is headed for a high in late May to early June 2010.

- The US Treasury benchmark 10 year yields are indicating a low (see chart below) in the spring of 2011, this trend looks confirmed, which means that another flight to percieved safety in US government bonds looks likely, that implies the Stock Market will make a low into Martin Armstrong's Pi Cycle date of mid June 2011 then.


The NYSE trend for a low in late April to early May (it could be around April 23 or it could be the first week of May from what I can see at this time, I may be able to pin-point it more clearly as we get closer to that time) still looks valid and a friend Humble1 who has just gone short after being long since March 2009 is also looking for a low in that time period, to be followed perhaps by the last good high in August in agreement with Terry Laundry's T-Theory

'Chart of the Day' shows Gold will most likely continue up in the future, to clarify: Gold should rally on a long term basis, it became very over-bought in November of 2009, my Silver chart several posts below this one shows trends for a low on Martin Armstrong's next major Pi Cycle date of June 2011, Silver not likely going down into that time period by itself, so Gold will most likely bottom in mid 2011 as well, Gold chart below top chart shows weak momentum now.

Brief note: the spx is oversold now (as of Wed. Jan 27, we can likely expect a rally into Feb., possibly starting next week. Longer term I am still looking at an April low, I will do a count to pin-point that low soon. I know lots of other people are expecting a rally into April, my oscillator is disagreeing.

The US Dollar index continues to rally into my forecasted early Feb. high from last October. Whether it just takes a rest once early Feb. arrives or goes back down is not clear to me at this time.(Jan.28)

CRB Index has broken its uptrend,late march or april looks to be the trend low for this index,a new chart will be posted.

SP500 breaking down...

Put Call chart showing that investors were getting too bullish. Chart by RodgerDodger

 Trend on NYSE showing a high coming for about  Feb. 10.has been violated too much now, market appears to be breaking down now and as RogerDodger over at Traders-talk has shown the CPC put call ratio is at extreme levels now, meaning there is too much bullishness, so the low I have been predicting for April/May may be starting to unfold now.

Below was posted by sold2rent1 on housepricecrash.co.uk , the addition of the 3.141 years from the 2007.15 Economic Confidence Model Peak leads to the April 16th 2010 date, as the 1998.55 date plus 3.141 years led to the September 11th, 2001 date (9/11), in a 1999 article Martin Armstrong warned that the USA could be attacked in either Sept. or Oct. of 2001 and that this would then be followed by a retalitary WAR in 2003. I do not know anything about the Calleman (Mayan?) model which is apparently in agreement with Armstrong Pi work for some kind of event in early 2010.

*Additionally I am not sure the below author's conclusions are valid because the sept. 2001 date was after the 224 civilization cycle hit for the United States which I think was likely the main reason that Martin Armstrong predicted back then that an attack would happen by the fall of 2001. As noted on this site a couple of times I think there is strong evidence on my oscillator for a low in Mid April which is the same date Mr. Armstrong is looking at a focus in the markets.

"The graph shows a highlighted period between January 2010 and 16 April 2010 (see below). What does this mean? Well the 4th Jan 2010 is a high on the 8.6 monthly cycle and the 16 April 2010 is the ?high + PI? date of 2007.15 + 3.141. The last time we had a "high + PI" date was 1998.55 + 3.141 = 11 September 2001 (9/11).

So we can expect the period of 4 January - 16 April to be extremely destructive.
16 April is a massive date with Calleman's model resonance too. It maps exactly to the peak oil price back in February 1981.

Both models are lining up for this period to be very grim indeed."

Latest work is strongly suggesting that June 18, 2011 will be a major low for Silver and likely many other things, including 10 year US Bond yields as can be seen on the charts below. Update Jan. 30, 2010, what these charts imply is that there is going to be another financial crisis going into the pi cycle date in June 2011, that will cause bonds to rally as capital seeks relative safety from the crisis which again will see capital dumping stocks and gold in a liquidty crunch as we saw in late 2008.

 Martin Armstrong wrote that whatever Gold does by October 2010 it will do the opposite for 1 year, this implies that the markets will go down into this spring (2010 as my NYSE chart shows) and then peak in the Autumn of 2010 to be followed by a big low on the Pi Cycle date of June 18, 2011.

Ronald Rosen of the Rosen Market Timing letter... LTD # 5 low is due to arrive October 10, 2010 for Gold, I think his date will be too early based on what I am now seeing.

Top chart shows NYSI with a 200 CCI which is long term bearish, lower chart has shorter oscillators that may be short term bullish.

A chart to consider as posted by CLK on TT (slightly modified), this argues more upside in the spx, but perhaps not much.

Dollar Breaking Out, Euro heading down into next summer.

I do not have a clear read on where a top will form (as of Dec 24, 2009), I do think a low will form in April as I have posted here with the NYSE chart.
Markets continue to break upwards but bullish sentiment is getting fairly high as can be seen on graphic above from .... http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=114501

Upper trendline resistance of 1150. Small cap indices like the Russell 2000 are diverging as investors are taking money out of them, the leadership of the blue chips is defensive and suggestive of problems ahead.

Nysi divergence is not a good sign for the bulls...

Baltic Dry Index sell signal. This index is for shipping rates of dry goods (lots of commodities which are considered to be leading indicators for how much future economic activity will occur, for example concrete, copper, steel etc. This is a short sell signal based on this last leg of the rally but this rally is a second attempt to break above the first failed rally so this could lead to a significant test of the lows a year ago.

S&P Price Oscillator Is Three Standard Deviations From Mean: 99% Outlier Market, this shows the market is currently over-bought. Selecto over at Traders-talk has posted this chart from Sentiment Trader

"When the Price Oscillator reaches an extreme, it often marks short-term exhaustion in buying or selling pressure. We generally use readings over 59% to indicate an excessive amount of buying pressure (particularly when in a longer-term downtrend), and readings below 41% to indicate that the selling may be overdone (especially when in a longer-term uptrend). This indicator works especially well within defined trading ranges, and will give a false signal (likely becoming very extreme) when a trading range is broken and a new trend begins." ... Sentiment Trader

Statistical overview:

68% of readings (1 standard deviation) should be between 41% and 59%
95% of readings (2 standard deviations) should be between 32% and 68%
99% of readings (3 standard deviations) should be between 23% and 77%


Latest readings have turned neutral (thanks to RogerDoger for this...

AAII:
(as of 11/11/2009) 50%
Bullish: 38.62%
Neutral: 22.76%
Bearish: 38.62%






Nov. 5, 2009 AAII Sentiment is showing extreme bearishness, which usually means the market will go up. This is confusing as many of the momentum indicators are very weak, but this sentiment poll is very important which means that a second wind or a third bullish T as Terry Laundry recently wrote should unfold here.

NYSE projecting a late April 2010 low, this date has now also been confirmed on my oscillator for the Toronto Stock Index (TSX), as of Nov. 8.

I now find myself at odds with Terry Laundry and his T system who is looking for a high in March, which is confusing since he is looking for the final high in this bull run in August 2010.

Martin Armstrong in his latest article is still talking about a possible low in this time period (thanks to the editor of Geronimoscalper in answer to I have this clarification... "closing support for the Dow will be at 8600 and 7200 levels. A closing below the first will signal a retest of lows for May, where as a year end closing below 7200 will signal a test of the 5000 level with the most extreme support 3800." also... "the two yearly targets for a major crisis are 2011/12 and 2016."
So the Dow will have to shed a fair bit by year end to turn more bearish which I believe will be the case, it may just be a test of last March, considering the lower NYSE chart below, also consider that the Nikkei and Nasdaq 100 did not put in a lower low in March.

US dollar index is projecting a late jan early feb 2010 hi. All the ducks are lining up in a row, dollar up into jan-feb, crb down into mid feb. NYSE, TSX down into April.

New work on the CRB index using more accurate software as promised is showing mid Feb as the coming low.

Stalling out on the March 2009 uptrend, a test of the March or July lows looks likely now for a few months. The higher low on the NDX last March does give some hope to the bulls in the long run.

TSX (Toronto Stock Exchange) is showing a trend for a low in April 2010, this is now confirmed. This date is the next major Pi Cycle date (April 16, 2010) as calculated by Martin Armstrong. This chart implies that the coming downtrend is going to be much greater than many bulls are expecting as its signals are coming directly off of the crash of 2008 and early 2009.

Spx looking toppy with an exhaustion island gap, while the US dollar index is looking like it is ready to break out of its downtrend wedge.

Speaking of French, the CAC index is approaching a whopper gap from last years panic, the closing of it could signal the end of wave 3 up and then a wave 4 pullback before another blast into next summer.

Pardon my French, but the NDX sure looks like it has put in an exhaustion gap and a double top.

Oct. 14 update... The sept 23 high has now been taken out, so my forecast which did produce a small pullback has now been breached, nonetheless the internals are weakening as well as momentum seen on chart below and this being the T theory week should still lead to more weakness in coming weeks.

Update Fri Oct 9, oex is testing its highs, next week will be critical as the official T theory date arrives.

Uddate Fri Oct 9, oex is testing its highs, next week will be critical as the official T theory date arrives.

Spx long moving average should be resistance, gap from last year on the SPY chart has been filled according to stockcharts but bigcharts and yahoo show it has not.

A reader asked if I still think the market will go down into March/April 2010, after just reviewing some charts as of Sept. 25 - I think the prediction for a low in March/April has a 100% certainty, in other words I think it is carved in stone. The CRB index is confirmed big time for a low then as well as many other charts.

Sept. 19th Update: Value Line Arithmetic using Yahoo and Stockcharts data is projecting September 23+/- a day for the high, the latest possible would be the week after.

Value Line Geometric index, late Sept looks like the high, there is also a 'T' that peaks then.

Note the small volume by price bars in blue...magnets

There are now several charts pointing to big low next March-April after an Oct.hi. with the exception of Value Line Geometric which is pointing at a Jan. low, things should become clearer as we get closer to those dates, there could be a low in jan followed by a rally and then a final low in March-April.

Diagonal triangle theory says that wedges don't break-out until the 80% area which is in October and this fits with my other projections using other methods on the stock indices.

Nikkei has a trend for a big low in Mar/April 2010 which is in line with Martin Armstrong's view for a final 31 month low from the Oct. 2007 high but that is in disagreement with my projection for the major market index to bottom in mid 2014

Vix wedge should eventually break to the upside around the 80% area as the market goes into a more serious correction, there is a gap on the spx around 900 that will likely be filled. Latest reading on other charts is suggesting by late Sept market should be peaking. T theory is looking for Mid Oct for a final high.

Valueline Geometric is showing a high for mid October 2009 in line with Terry Laundry's call. I have redone the Vix,Vxn and Nikkei which I have found bullish confirmations for in line with this chart. This should be followed by a Jan Low or possibly farther out into March as the Nikkei chart is suggesting, this should become clearer as time goes foreward.

Oscillator forecast for a mid 2014 Low for the Major Market Index, this ties in with Terry Laundry's call for the bottom of this bear market in the 2013-2014 area (see second chart below). I have been aware of this potential 2014 low since 2006 but have been doubtful of it because of the success of Martin Armstrong's Pi Cycle which bottoms in mid 2011, nonetheless it does look like a valid confirmed trend. This 2014 trend started to form in 2001. The last chart is the Kress 60 year cycle (thanks to Kavaron for the heads-up) and sub cycles forecasting a final low in 2014 as multiple cycles converge.

Again the XMI has approached the resistance line from last winter, markets look pretty toppy here but the June 21-22 low I was predicting now looks like it is going to be a high! As indicated on chart above this one, the high signal appeared back in March but I did not notice it on this chart until recently. Nymo on the chart shows an interesting back kiss to the uptrend that was broken which lends support to the idea that these markets are getting toppy in here, just one more surge up in the next week or so should be the top. Stay nimble.