Gold Futures Vs. XAU Index

Market timer SemiBizz on Traders-talk.com thinks the XAU will go down to 56, this chart shows XAU on the top and Gold Futures on the bottom for comparison purposes. I remain skeptical that XAU will go that low but he could be right.

Gold low July 10, 2013, high Oct-Nov 2016

This chart shows the low should happen this year as it gets down to the 1000 area of support. So low should be July 10 this summer and high 2016. Hope you enjoy my 'Gold Theme' chart design. ;)  One caveat is that my GDX chart is showing a possible low this October but that is the gold stocks.

Gold low for July or August

The oscillator is pointing towards July 10th for a serious low, which also happens to be the pi cycle time applied to the debt crisis which is about July 7th.
Note the RSI approaching the 1999 oversold level. The low may happen in July/August or as late as October which the GDX chart has a trend for, that could imply a re-test of support then. The 1000 area appears to be solid support on the chart regardless of when Gold gets to it.

Smart Money (commercials) Most Bullish on Gold in 5 Years, Large and Small Traders most bearish since 2008 and 2001 respectively

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/inside-the-market/smart-money-most-bullish-on-gold-in-five-years/article12165636/#dashboard/follows/

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-inves...oldcftc.jpg.pdf

 Commercial participants in the gold market, also known as “smart money” given that they work in the industry as opposed to being speculative trend followers, are the most bullish on gold in nearly five years.

As prices declined over the last few months, commercials - those involved in the production, processing or merchandising of a commodity - have been busy buying futures contracts and covering short positions, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Their position rose from a low of a net short 269,270 contracts in October 2012 to the present net short position of 84,122, notes a report from Euro Pacific Canada today. This means commericials initiated new long positions, and covered previous shorts, resulting in an increase in their total net position by just over 185,000 contracts.

It’s a different case for the other two groups that the CFTC tracks in the commodity futures markets.

Large traders, mostly made up of hedge funds that are often trend followers, are currently net long 83,726 contracts - the most bearish reading since the October 2008 bottom. The group tends to be the most bearish at market bottoms and the most bullish at market tops, suggests Euro Pacific Canada analyst Dima Kash.

The third group, small traders, are those that control a very small portion of open interest in futures contracts, but their actions tend to help gauge retail sentiment nonetheless. Historically, they have been on the wrong side of the gold market at key inflection points, according to Mr. Kash. The group this month had a net short position of 1,704 contracts, an extremely bearish reading not seen since February 2001 when the gold market was about to begin its decade-long bull-market run.

Mr. Kash’s conclusion? “The current dynamics between the three groups signal that a significant intermediate-term bottom is forming in the gold market. This does not necessarily mean that prices cannot head lower, but it does mean that prices are attracting commercial buying interest – the smart money – at levels not seen since the financial crisis when gold declined from about $1,000 an ounce and hit a critical low at about $700 an ounce,” he said.

He thinks the key for investors now is to look for signs of a bottom, and technicals point to some important clues.

Click link at top of this post to see Mr. Kash’s full report (pdf), which Euro Pacific has given us permission to republish in its entirety. It provides some interesting charts on the three group’s positioning in the futures market, as well as his technical analysis.

Gold long term trendline support

The bullish case for Gold....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=vTYfG4WvJPs#t=873s

Silver finding support

http://www.investing.com/commodities/gold-streaming-chart

XAU Advance Decline Chart

Gold Low Summer 2014

UPDATE July 14th 2013 - This charts trends have now been violated too much, I believe that charts above posted in July 2013 are correct and they have very long term monthly and quarterly trends which are unlikely to be violated. The Gold low should happen in the summer of 2013 and move up into 2016-2017 where it should get up to the $5000 area.


I have a long term confirmed signal for Gold to reach a major low in the summer of 2014 - I am very sure about this signal and see very little chance of it not being correct. Martin Armstrong may get his $1150 by then. This seem to imply that Merkel will be re-elected in September of 2013 which will lead to some kind of new hope for saving the European Union. Alternate view.... if Merkel is not re-elected this could lead to a further loss of confidence in Europe leading to the bottom in mid 2014 for the markets in general and Gold will just follow the deflation down, whatever the reason Gold looks to be in a mid term consolidation that will take it down into 2014.

Gold Low - April 2013?

Latest update... April 12th, 2013 - This signal seems to be correct but I have been having trouble getting the exact trend in place, obviously with gold crashing and breaking below key support at 1530 a great deal of technical damage has been done, my latest look at the signal is pointing more towards April 26 negating my earlier estimate for the low this week.

May 12th update: Well my first projection was correct as Gold formed its big low mid April, I expect Gold to now rally into summer, the XAU Advance/Decline line for the stocks is showing a test is happening now (mid May), Will be looking for resistance this summer and then down into mid 2014.

Markets needing a rest soon

There is a possible short term peak coming in early Feb with the usual low showing up most likely in March or April but the long term peak in July is still the dominant trend.

SP500 Major Hi Summer 2013

In my opinion this is a very powerful signal as it is directly connected to the crash of 2008, there is likely to be more sovereign debt trouble.

God changes his mind on Gold

Nice to see Martin Armstrong has changed his Gold Peak date to agree with my forecast of 2016.

After predicting the current low a few months ago, my US Dollar Index chart is showing a high coming for January, which means that Gold should go down into that time. The forecast for the HUI gold bugs index to peak in January is therefore now in doubt, even though the trend on HUI looks to still be there, however further work on the actual Gold bullion chart is showing agreement now with the HUI and Nugt charts for a high in January.

US Dollar Breaking Down - Gold Going Up

Gann Global Gold Projection

They are looking for a gold high around October 2012 based on the median gold rallies of the past.

Gold (GLD) Resistance Chart

Gold has just come up to the major resistance line from the peak of last year, it may stall here temporarily but it should blast through it eventually and break to new highs in the 2200 area. I have been informed by TraderMama on Traders-talk.com that the astro according to Merriman is now favourable for gold going into Oct. which is a bit short of my projection for a high in Dec./Jan, I also found a low trend on the US dollar for Oct. and Gold and the US dollar seem to have an inverse relationship usually. NUGT on the NYSE is a very good way to invest in this market as the gold miners got oversold and NUGT gives great leverage on mid to senior miners that have proven resources.

HUI and NUGT high for Jan. 2013

Further work on Gold is showing that the HUI Index and NUGT ETF on NYSE will form a high in January 2013. The final high for Gold should come in 2016 from my work or maybe 2017 base on Martin Armstrong's cyclical work.

US Dollar, Gold and CRB Index update

US Dollar:  Further work on the dollar index looks to be indicating a high around July 20 within a few days, my earlier call that the dollar had peaked was not based on my oscillator, it was based on the look of the chart which is always a dangerous thing to do.

Gold is showing a strong trend for a high in the spring of 2016 which is a year earlier than forecast by Martin Armstrong so we shall see who is right. My oscillator is also showing that after the coming peak in Gold it will go down into 2024, which I note is about 8 years later which is a pi cycle time period.

I am not sure about Gold in the near term, but if my chart for the dollar is correct then Gold should start to break out in late July, but my charts on Gold near term are not clear.

CRB Index is showing a low for early 2013.  I will post more if I see anything else, my main computer is working again now.

US Dollar Index Low Mid October 2012

The us dollar has clearly topped here and looks to be headed for a mid oct. low which confirms that gold will keep moving up.

Gold High Late Oct. or Early November 2012

My work is in agreement with Martin Armstrong - that Gold is going to move up now, the low is probably in, the bull flag is going to break out sending gold into the $2000+ area by Oct. - Nov. Volatility is going to be strong this autumn. As mentioned to one of my readers, there is also a trend on the Euro for a high in early 2014, past correlations show show that the US dollar goes down when the Euro has gone up, this would imply that Gold will also go up as the dollar goes down, perhaps that will be followed by a rally back into the US dollar after that going into late 2015 with the Pi Cycle model and as Armstrong has written, 2017 possibly being the high for Gold as the USA will be going down the drain by then. The thing that does not fit is the 51.6 year cycle and the 309 year pi cycle peaking in 2032. I have not seen Mr. A address this.

Copper low early July 2012

Copper which is considered to be a key indicator of economic strength looks like it should put in a bottom in early July.

The Vix has given a signal for a low which now appears to be in ( a few weeks ago), the general market SP500 etc. should sell off for a few weeks now. This is in agreement with Mr. Dev's work from Traders-talk and some others over there. The buy signal from last August has been a rough ride but is due for a rest now.

This is an interesting company that Jonathan Lebed has promoted, it has perhaps the best enterprise social networking software available. It looks like it will go down into late april early may.

Gold appears to have a trend for a low in June, possible down to the $1350 area. This is in agreement with this post... http://oakshirefinancial.com/2012/03/01/look-for-swelling-in-the-selling-of-gold-and-silver/comment-page-1/#comment-85397

I am having trouble with my computer but will post a chart when I get it fixed.

Update for August 3rd: This signal for a low in late July was based on looking at a weekly signal which can go over into the next week which has now happened, the US stock markets should start to move back up now. Signals are usually +/- a day or week depending on whether the signal looked at is daily or weekly, in this case I focused on the weekly.


Oex low for late july 2011

Update - June 8th, the Dollar may be forming a double bottom right on the Economic Confidence Model date of June 13, 2011 (normal interpretation of the cycle allows for a few days +/- within the date), if so this implies capital seeking safety in the dollar as it did in late 2008. As indicated before, the US Dollar appears to be headed for a high in October 2011, which seems like a short rally in light of the ECM model.

Natural Gas has a strong trend going into autumn of 2015 for a high which is also Martin Armstrong's next peak in the economic confidence model after the model bottoms in June 2011. There are Natural Gas etf's or perhaps some good quality stocks that a person could invest in.

"What if we see a bounce from a dollar low this coming June, like the top on the dollar in June 2010? Have the fundamentals aligned themselves finally? Long term, I know the dollar is headed into the ditches. But on the way down we should see bounces." Mike


There are always counter trends within bigger trends. You could be right, have to see, Gold may be stalling out here, this 1400 area seems to be strong resistance but if it blast though it then that 1800 top channel that Martin Armstrong has shown would be the next target.

Uranium is very likely to go into a super-bull market as the main replacement for Oil in the long run according to James Dines and others. Uranium's chart also looks to have bottomed.  This company Uranerz Energy has caught my attention as technically interesting and apparently good from a fundamental analysis view too...
"If you go on www.kitcometal.com just in the middle of the web page there is Matlik ranking on Junior companies.
He rates URZ at 1.3 which is one of the best. I don't understand how he does the rating but for he considers potential revenue over 2010-2011-2012" .... Ecolo101 on www.Stockhouse.com Bull Board.

The chart looks like it is going to break out of its big wedge which could then lead to large gains in price, my oscillator is projecting a high for late 2011.

Caveat: It has been observed by others that Gold reaching new highs while the US dollar has not reached new lows is a warning that dollar bears may have to scramble as the dollar puts in a rally for a few months, this would tie in with Martin Armstrong's warning that gold may go down into hi Pi Cycle next June with markets once again seeking shelter in the US dollar as stock markets go down again. Also in agreement with my latest Silver chart above predicting a top for silver now which should also mean a top for Gold.

As previously forecast in March 2010, the US dollar was trending for a late May to Early June high, it peaked on June 7th, it now looks like it has put in the classic M top and is headed to hell in a hand-basket into late 2014 or 2015. This will likely be the unfolding of Martin Armstrong's long standing prediction of a major debt crisis with the trashing of the US dollar and Gold exceeding $5000.

Futurist Gerald Celente is predicting hyper-inflation, price controls on food and then food shortages as farmers stop growing food since they will be losing money doing it, then food riots will break out in US cities. I pray this will not happen, I don't know, all I can see is the US dollar is in trouble technically. As Mr. Armstrong has predicted what is coming is the death of Socialism, where politicians use other people's money and make promises that cannot be kept, as former British Prime-Minister Margaret Thatcher said... "Socialism works until you run out of other people's money". Mr. Armstrong has suggested that Karl Marx is the most influential economist in our modern era and that his picture should be on the US dollar not the founding fathers if politicians were honest about it.

Terry Laundry's work with his confidence indicator in the link below is very interesting, this in addition to his T theory work and advance decline charts is showing more trouble coming our way. He is looking for August 26 to be a pivotal time and then a rapid decline into June or July of 2011. My work is suggesting a pause in between with an October low to be followed by a rally and then the final bottom coming in on Martin Armstrong's Pi Cycle date in June 2011. The housing index chart is also pointing to a low for mid 2011.

http://ttheory.typepad.com/files/t-theory-confidence-indicatorpdf-.pdf

July 5 Update,  VXN Nasdaq Volatility Index is not making new highs as the market has come down, so despite the price charts looking bad, many of the internals are diverging which should lead to a rally now.

May 26 update... a closer look at the NYSE signal looks like June 4 +/- a day will most likely be the low and a good time to buy stock markets in general for a few months until markets start to turn down again.

May 6 Update,  As originally forecast on the Nov. 4 2009 post on this site, the NYSE is making a low in this time period, the time has shifted forward a few weeks from last November's predicted date, as best as I can determine the final low on this run will be late May or even the first week of June.

Update Friday April 23;  Market continues higher, signal appears to have only produced a very short term pull-back, still divergence happening in the vix, a more serious pull-back should be coming.

 5 days ago I wrote on the post below that I thought the banking index looked like it was going to peak this week, today the SEC charged Goldman Sachs with Fraud and the banking index and stock market in general is crashing now after a double top on the minute charts yesterday and a gap down today. News comes to satisfy technicals.

The Philadelphia Banking Index has trend which is likely showing a top for the banking index the week of April 12, 2010.

UPDATE MARCH 28,2010

- CRB Index has a trend for a low Oct. 2011
- Canadian Dollar has a trend for a low around Sept. 2011 (this is roughly in agreement with the CRB forecast, the CDN. Dollar is percieved to be a commodity currency
-US Dollar now looks like it is headed for a high in late May to early June 2010.

- The US Treasury benchmark 10 year yields are indicating a low (see chart below) in the spring of 2011, this trend looks confirmed, which means that another flight to percieved safety in US government bonds looks likely, that implies the Stock Market will make a low into Martin Armstrong's Pi Cycle date of mid June 2011 then.


The NYSE trend for a low in late April to early May (it could be around April 23 or it could be the first week of May from what I can see at this time, I may be able to pin-point it more clearly as we get closer to that time) still looks valid and a friend Humble1 who has just gone short after being long since March 2009 is also looking for a low in that time period, to be followed perhaps by the last good high in August in agreement with Terry Laundry's T-Theory

'Chart of the Day' shows Gold will most likely continue up in the future, to clarify: Gold should rally on a long term basis, it became very over-bought in November of 2009, my Silver chart several posts below this one shows trends for a low on Martin Armstrong's next major Pi Cycle date of June 2011, Silver not likely going down into that time period by itself, so Gold will most likely bottom in mid 2011 as well, Gold chart below top chart shows weak momentum now.

Brief note: the spx is oversold now (as of Wed. Jan 27, we can likely expect a rally into Feb., possibly starting next week. Longer term I am still looking at an April low, I will do a count to pin-point that low soon. I know lots of other people are expecting a rally into April, my oscillator is disagreeing.

The US Dollar index continues to rally into my forecasted early Feb. high from last October. Whether it just takes a rest once early Feb. arrives or goes back down is not clear to me at this time.(Jan.28)

CRB Index has broken its uptrend,late march or april looks to be the trend low for this index,a new chart will be posted.

SP500 breaking down...

Put Call chart showing that investors were getting too bullish. Chart by RodgerDodger

 Trend on NYSE showing a high coming for about  Feb. 10.has been violated too much now, market appears to be breaking down now and as RogerDodger over at Traders-talk has shown the CPC put call ratio is at extreme levels now, meaning there is too much bullishness, so the low I have been predicting for April/May may be starting to unfold now.

Below was posted by sold2rent1 on housepricecrash.co.uk , the addition of the 3.141 years from the 2007.15 Economic Confidence Model Peak leads to the April 16th 2010 date, as the 1998.55 date plus 3.141 years led to the September 11th, 2001 date (9/11), in a 1999 article Martin Armstrong warned that the USA could be attacked in either Sept. or Oct. of 2001 and that this would then be followed by a retalitary WAR in 2003. I do not know anything about the Calleman (Mayan?) model which is apparently in agreement with Armstrong Pi work for some kind of event in early 2010.

*Additionally I am not sure the below author's conclusions are valid because the sept. 2001 date was after the 224 civilization cycle hit for the United States which I think was likely the main reason that Martin Armstrong predicted back then that an attack would happen by the fall of 2001. As noted on this site a couple of times I think there is strong evidence on my oscillator for a low in Mid April which is the same date Mr. Armstrong is looking at a focus in the markets.

"The graph shows a highlighted period between January 2010 and 16 April 2010 (see below). What does this mean? Well the 4th Jan 2010 is a high on the 8.6 monthly cycle and the 16 April 2010 is the ?high + PI? date of 2007.15 + 3.141. The last time we had a "high + PI" date was 1998.55 + 3.141 = 11 September 2001 (9/11).

So we can expect the period of 4 January - 16 April to be extremely destructive.
16 April is a massive date with Calleman's model resonance too. It maps exactly to the peak oil price back in February 1981.

Both models are lining up for this period to be very grim indeed."

Latest work is strongly suggesting that June 18, 2011 will be a major low for Silver and likely many other things, including 10 year US Bond yields as can be seen on the charts below. Update Jan. 30, 2010, what these charts imply is that there is going to be another financial crisis going into the pi cycle date in June 2011, that will cause bonds to rally as capital seeks relative safety from the crisis which again will see capital dumping stocks and gold in a liquidty crunch as we saw in late 2008.

 Martin Armstrong wrote that whatever Gold does by October 2010 it will do the opposite for 1 year, this implies that the markets will go down into this spring (2010 as my NYSE chart shows) and then peak in the Autumn of 2010 to be followed by a big low on the Pi Cycle date of June 18, 2011.

Ronald Rosen of the Rosen Market Timing letter... LTD # 5 low is due to arrive October 10, 2010 for Gold, I think his date will be too early based on what I am now seeing.

Top chart shows NYSI with a 200 CCI which is long term bearish, lower chart has shorter oscillators that may be short term bullish.

A chart to consider as posted by CLK on TT (slightly modified), this argues more upside in the spx, but perhaps not much.

Dollar Breaking Out, Euro heading down into next summer.

I do not have a clear read on where a top will form (as of Dec 24, 2009), I do think a low will form in April as I have posted here with the NYSE chart.
Markets continue to break upwards but bullish sentiment is getting fairly high as can be seen on graphic above from .... http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=114501

Upper trendline resistance of 1150. Small cap indices like the Russell 2000 are diverging as investors are taking money out of them, the leadership of the blue chips is defensive and suggestive of problems ahead.

Nysi divergence is not a good sign for the bulls...

Baltic Dry Index sell signal. This index is for shipping rates of dry goods (lots of commodities which are considered to be leading indicators for how much future economic activity will occur, for example concrete, copper, steel etc. This is a short sell signal based on this last leg of the rally but this rally is a second attempt to break above the first failed rally so this could lead to a significant test of the lows a year ago.

S&P Price Oscillator Is Three Standard Deviations From Mean: 99% Outlier Market, this shows the market is currently over-bought. Selecto over at Traders-talk has posted this chart from Sentiment Trader

"When the Price Oscillator reaches an extreme, it often marks short-term exhaustion in buying or selling pressure. We generally use readings over 59% to indicate an excessive amount of buying pressure (particularly when in a longer-term downtrend), and readings below 41% to indicate that the selling may be overdone (especially when in a longer-term uptrend). This indicator works especially well within defined trading ranges, and will give a false signal (likely becoming very extreme) when a trading range is broken and a new trend begins." ... Sentiment Trader

Statistical overview:

68% of readings (1 standard deviation) should be between 41% and 59%
95% of readings (2 standard deviations) should be between 32% and 68%
99% of readings (3 standard deviations) should be between 23% and 77%


Latest readings have turned neutral (thanks to RogerDoger for this...

AAII:
(as of 11/11/2009) 50%
Bullish: 38.62%
Neutral: 22.76%
Bearish: 38.62%






Nov. 5, 2009 AAII Sentiment is showing extreme bearishness, which usually means the market will go up. This is confusing as many of the momentum indicators are very weak, but this sentiment poll is very important which means that a second wind or a third bullish T as Terry Laundry recently wrote should unfold here.