Gold Miners on track for a late Dec to Early Jan Hi

Gold and Silver as well as their stock indices should all move up in the intermediate term into late Dec or early Jan, then a consolidation for a few weeks before the final high of this rally (not the ultimate high).

Silver - Headed for a strong rally into Summer 2014

Price projection levels are estimates.

Gold may have hit bottom last week

My original forecast a few weeks ago was that Gold would go down until October 8-10, on the weekend I did this chart which agrees with my first work. Update Oct. 14th Evening: While this signal produce a good bounce, with the futures down tonight the forecast below may still prove to be the low around Oct. 22.

Gold Long Term with Elliot Wave Count and CCI

Notice how 1980 was more parabolic and the cci shot much high making 2011 look weak, this argues the final rally is yet to come, probably around 2016-17, then the next big low should be around 2032 based on my oscillator's trends and it coincides with Armrstrong's Pi Cycle Model Peak in 2032.

Gold - October 22, 2013 Low

This chart is what will probably happen...

Silver may have reached support

A potential bull flag getting ready to break-out to the upside.

Gold - 60 minute chart break-out - initial target 1410

I am showing a trend on the US dollar for a low just before mid Oct. so this should drive gold up  as the debt ceiling issue heats up again. - update - I am getting December for a low in the dollar using a dollar etf, I will do more work on the charts to confirm. Tradermama over at traders-talk.com at the gold and mining forum sees that the dollar started a negative trend in Sept.  using her pnf methods.

  Previous projection for gold low around Oct. 10th has now been invalidated after the  large up move. The oscillator signals lose their confirmation especially if the signal is not a long term signal.

Gary Wagner's Bearish Elliot Wave Count...

I am not saying I agree with this bearish view but it is worth consideration...

Gold low late Sept. low - Update - indicator has shifted again and is now suggesting around October 25 for the low

Graphic below this post was done as an estimate based partly on other people's work which obviously has been wrong, my oscillator has shown both the high and the developing low now as of Sept. 13th.

NUGGET Kite Formation

Projection is for the Direxion 3X Gold Stock ETF to peak in either December 2013 or March 2014, depending on whether it is the GDX or HUI index, further work will be needed on these charts but there is going to be a large rally between Sept and late year or possibly into early 2014.

Gold's Weekly RSI Turning Positive

Gold is overbought on a short term basis, this test of the earlier low should prove decisive

Dow, Gold, and Dollar Long term projections

The top chart shows the US Dollar Index peaking this year and bottoming in the 2020 time frame, that date is in agreement with Martin Armstrong's Pi Cycle model which forecasts a major low for the economy and most likely the end of the debt party since FDR's new deal and government thinking they never have to pay their debts back.

The second chart below is from Gann Global it shows that they think the best match for Gold is the 1976 rally which would see Gold go to $8000 in today's dollars, than may be a little high but on the other hand we are facing a debt implosion of unprecedented levels in all history.

Armstrong in his latest article says the Dow Jones Industrials can go up to 43,000 by late 2015 in what he refers to as a phase transition (physics thing applied to human capital flows), this projection does not agree with my chart in that my chart is calling for the final high in 2023-24, also Armstrong is ignoring what his computer projected using Elliot wave for the Dow's final high to be in the 2024 area, its not easy seeing the future all the time is it Marty!  Maybe he will be right about that level by 2015 though, I am not sure about price, my work is more about time although sometimes price is easy to see too.

The Dollar bottoming in 2020 is in line with Armstrongs'  8.6/51.6 year pi cycle model, the US and Europe are headed for the dumster after 2015 and that is why Gold will shine brightly, the death of Socialism is coming. Gann Global says the pattern match would see Gold go up to about $8000 which may be a little high, on the other hand we are headed for a debt implosion of unprecedented levels.

Did XAU just put in a major low?

Gold Futures Vs. XAU Index

Market timer SemiBizz on Traders-talk.com thinks the XAU will go down to 56, this chart shows XAU on the top and Gold Futures on the bottom for comparison purposes. I remain skeptical that XAU will go that low but he could be right.

Gold low July 10, 2013, high Oct-Nov 2016

This chart shows the low should happen this year as it gets down to the 1000 area of support. So low should be July 10 this summer and high 2016. Hope you enjoy my 'Gold Theme' chart design. ;)  One caveat is that my GDX chart is showing a possible low this October but that is the gold stocks.

Gold low for July or August

The oscillator is pointing towards July 10th for a serious low, which also happens to be the pi cycle time applied to the debt crisis which is about July 7th.
Note the RSI approaching the 1999 oversold level. The low may happen in July/August or as late as October which the GDX chart has a trend for, that could imply a re-test of support then. The 1000 area appears to be solid support on the chart regardless of when Gold gets to it.

Smart Money (commercials) Most Bullish on Gold in 5 Years, Large and Small Traders most bearish since 2008 and 2001 respectively

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/inside-the-market/smart-money-most-bullish-on-gold-in-five-years/article12165636/#dashboard/follows/

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-inves...oldcftc.jpg.pdf

 Commercial participants in the gold market, also known as “smart money” given that they work in the industry as opposed to being speculative trend followers, are the most bullish on gold in nearly five years.

As prices declined over the last few months, commercials - those involved in the production, processing or merchandising of a commodity - have been busy buying futures contracts and covering short positions, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Their position rose from a low of a net short 269,270 contracts in October 2012 to the present net short position of 84,122, notes a report from Euro Pacific Canada today. This means commericials initiated new long positions, and covered previous shorts, resulting in an increase in their total net position by just over 185,000 contracts.

It’s a different case for the other two groups that the CFTC tracks in the commodity futures markets.

Large traders, mostly made up of hedge funds that are often trend followers, are currently net long 83,726 contracts - the most bearish reading since the October 2008 bottom. The group tends to be the most bearish at market bottoms and the most bullish at market tops, suggests Euro Pacific Canada analyst Dima Kash.

The third group, small traders, are those that control a very small portion of open interest in futures contracts, but their actions tend to help gauge retail sentiment nonetheless. Historically, they have been on the wrong side of the gold market at key inflection points, according to Mr. Kash. The group this month had a net short position of 1,704 contracts, an extremely bearish reading not seen since February 2001 when the gold market was about to begin its decade-long bull-market run.

Mr. Kash’s conclusion? “The current dynamics between the three groups signal that a significant intermediate-term bottom is forming in the gold market. This does not necessarily mean that prices cannot head lower, but it does mean that prices are attracting commercial buying interest – the smart money – at levels not seen since the financial crisis when gold declined from about $1,000 an ounce and hit a critical low at about $700 an ounce,” he said.

He thinks the key for investors now is to look for signs of a bottom, and technicals point to some important clues.

Click link at top of this post to see Mr. Kash’s full report (pdf), which Euro Pacific has given us permission to republish in its entirety. It provides some interesting charts on the three group’s positioning in the futures market, as well as his technical analysis.

Gold long term trendline support

The bullish case for Gold....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=vTYfG4WvJPs#t=873s

Silver finding support

http://www.investing.com/commodities/gold-streaming-chart

XAU Advance Decline Chart

Gold Low Summer 2014

UPDATE July 14th 2013 - This charts trends have now been violated too much, I believe that charts above posted in July 2013 are correct and they have very long term monthly and quarterly trends which are unlikely to be violated. The Gold low should happen in the summer of 2013 and move up into 2016-2017 where it should get up to the $5000 area.


I have a long term confirmed signal for Gold to reach a major low in the summer of 2014 - I am very sure about this signal and see very little chance of it not being correct. Martin Armstrong may get his $1150 by then. This seem to imply that Merkel will be re-elected in September of 2013 which will lead to some kind of new hope for saving the European Union. Alternate view.... if Merkel is not re-elected this could lead to a further loss of confidence in Europe leading to the bottom in mid 2014 for the markets in general and Gold will just follow the deflation down, whatever the reason Gold looks to be in a mid term consolidation that will take it down into 2014.

Gold Low - April 2013?

Latest update... April 12th, 2013 - This signal seems to be correct but I have been having trouble getting the exact trend in place, obviously with gold crashing and breaking below key support at 1530 a great deal of technical damage has been done, my latest look at the signal is pointing more towards April 26 negating my earlier estimate for the low this week.

May 12th update: Well my first projection was correct as Gold formed its big low mid April, I expect Gold to now rally into summer, the XAU Advance/Decline line for the stocks is showing a test is happening now (mid May), Will be looking for resistance this summer and then down into mid 2014.

Markets needing a rest soon

There is a possible short term peak coming in early Feb with the usual low showing up most likely in March or April but the long term peak in July is still the dominant trend.

SP500 Major Hi Summer 2013

In my opinion this is a very powerful signal as it is directly connected to the crash of 2008, there is likely to be more sovereign debt trouble.

God changes his mind on Gold

Nice to see Martin Armstrong has changed his Gold Peak date to agree with my forecast of 2016.

After predicting the current low a few months ago, my US Dollar Index chart is showing a high coming for January, which means that Gold should go down into that time. The forecast for the HUI gold bugs index to peak in January is therefore now in doubt, even though the trend on HUI looks to still be there, however further work on the actual Gold bullion chart is showing agreement now with the HUI and Nugt charts for a high in January.

US Dollar Breaking Down - Gold Going Up

Gann Global Gold Projection

They are looking for a gold high around October 2012 based on the median gold rallies of the past.

Gold (GLD) Resistance Chart

Gold has just come up to the major resistance line from the peak of last year, it may stall here temporarily but it should blast through it eventually and break to new highs in the 2200 area. I have been informed by TraderMama on Traders-talk.com that the astro according to Merriman is now favourable for gold going into Oct. which is a bit short of my projection for a high in Dec./Jan, I also found a low trend on the US dollar for Oct. and Gold and the US dollar seem to have an inverse relationship usually. NUGT on the NYSE is a very good way to invest in this market as the gold miners got oversold and NUGT gives great leverage on mid to senior miners that have proven resources.

HUI and NUGT high for Jan. 2013

Further work on Gold is showing that the HUI Index and NUGT ETF on NYSE will form a high in January 2013. The final high for Gold should come in 2016 from my work or maybe 2017 base on Martin Armstrong's cyclical work.

US Dollar, Gold and CRB Index update

US Dollar:  Further work on the dollar index looks to be indicating a high around July 20 within a few days, my earlier call that the dollar had peaked was not based on my oscillator, it was based on the look of the chart which is always a dangerous thing to do.

Gold is showing a strong trend for a high in the spring of 2016 which is a year earlier than forecast by Martin Armstrong so we shall see who is right. My oscillator is also showing that after the coming peak in Gold it will go down into 2024, which I note is about 8 years later which is a pi cycle time period.

I am not sure about Gold in the near term, but if my chart for the dollar is correct then Gold should start to break out in late July, but my charts on Gold near term are not clear.

CRB Index is showing a low for early 2013.  I will post more if I see anything else, my main computer is working again now.

US Dollar Index Low Mid October 2012

The us dollar has clearly topped here and looks to be headed for a mid oct. low which confirms that gold will keep moving up.

Gold High Late Oct. or Early November 2012

My work is in agreement with Martin Armstrong - that Gold is going to move up now, the low is probably in, the bull flag is going to break out sending gold into the $2000+ area by Oct. - Nov. Volatility is going to be strong this autumn. As mentioned to one of my readers, there is also a trend on the Euro for a high in early 2014, past correlations show show that the US dollar goes down when the Euro has gone up, this would imply that Gold will also go up as the dollar goes down, perhaps that will be followed by a rally back into the US dollar after that going into late 2015 with the Pi Cycle model and as Armstrong has written, 2017 possibly being the high for Gold as the USA will be going down the drain by then. The thing that does not fit is the 51.6 year cycle and the 309 year pi cycle peaking in 2032. I have not seen Mr. A address this.

Copper low early July 2012

Copper which is considered to be a key indicator of economic strength looks like it should put in a bottom in early July.

The Vix has given a signal for a low which now appears to be in ( a few weeks ago), the general market SP500 etc. should sell off for a few weeks now. This is in agreement with Mr. Dev's work from Traders-talk and some others over there. The buy signal from last August has been a rough ride but is due for a rest now.

This is an interesting company that Jonathan Lebed has promoted, it has perhaps the best enterprise social networking software available. It looks like it will go down into late april early may.

Gold appears to have a trend for a low in June, possible down to the $1350 area. This is in agreement with this post... http://oakshirefinancial.com/2012/03/01/look-for-swelling-in-the-selling-of-gold-and-silver/comment-page-1/#comment-85397

I am having trouble with my computer but will post a chart when I get it fixed.

Update for August 3rd: This signal for a low in late July was based on looking at a weekly signal which can go over into the next week which has now happened, the US stock markets should start to move back up now. Signals are usually +/- a day or week depending on whether the signal looked at is daily or weekly, in this case I focused on the weekly.


Oex low for late july 2011

Update - June 8th, the Dollar may be forming a double bottom right on the Economic Confidence Model date of June 13, 2011 (normal interpretation of the cycle allows for a few days +/- within the date), if so this implies capital seeking safety in the dollar as it did in late 2008. As indicated before, the US Dollar appears to be headed for a high in October 2011, which seems like a short rally in light of the ECM model.

Natural Gas has a strong trend going into autumn of 2015 for a high which is also Martin Armstrong's next peak in the economic confidence model after the model bottoms in June 2011. There are Natural Gas etf's or perhaps some good quality stocks that a person could invest in.

"What if we see a bounce from a dollar low this coming June, like the top on the dollar in June 2010? Have the fundamentals aligned themselves finally? Long term, I know the dollar is headed into the ditches. But on the way down we should see bounces." Mike


There are always counter trends within bigger trends. You could be right, have to see, Gold may be stalling out here, this 1400 area seems to be strong resistance but if it blast though it then that 1800 top channel that Martin Armstrong has shown would be the next target.

Uranium is very likely to go into a super-bull market as the main replacement for Oil in the long run according to James Dines and others. Uranium's chart also looks to have bottomed.  This company Uranerz Energy has caught my attention as technically interesting and apparently good from a fundamental analysis view too...
"If you go on www.kitcometal.com just in the middle of the web page there is Matlik ranking on Junior companies.
He rates URZ at 1.3 which is one of the best. I don't understand how he does the rating but for he considers potential revenue over 2010-2011-2012" .... Ecolo101 on www.Stockhouse.com Bull Board.

The chart looks like it is going to break out of its big wedge which could then lead to large gains in price, my oscillator is projecting a high for late 2011.

Caveat: It has been observed by others that Gold reaching new highs while the US dollar has not reached new lows is a warning that dollar bears may have to scramble as the dollar puts in a rally for a few months, this would tie in with Martin Armstrong's warning that gold may go down into hi Pi Cycle next June with markets once again seeking shelter in the US dollar as stock markets go down again. Also in agreement with my latest Silver chart above predicting a top for silver now which should also mean a top for Gold.

As previously forecast in March 2010, the US dollar was trending for a late May to Early June high, it peaked on June 7th, it now looks like it has put in the classic M top and is headed to hell in a hand-basket into late 2014 or 2015. This will likely be the unfolding of Martin Armstrong's long standing prediction of a major debt crisis with the trashing of the US dollar and Gold exceeding $5000.

Futurist Gerald Celente is predicting hyper-inflation, price controls on food and then food shortages as farmers stop growing food since they will be losing money doing it, then food riots will break out in US cities. I pray this will not happen, I don't know, all I can see is the US dollar is in trouble technically. As Mr. Armstrong has predicted what is coming is the death of Socialism, where politicians use other people's money and make promises that cannot be kept, as former British Prime-Minister Margaret Thatcher said... "Socialism works until you run out of other people's money". Mr. Armstrong has suggested that Karl Marx is the most influential economist in our modern era and that his picture should be on the US dollar not the founding fathers if politicians were honest about it.

Terry Laundry's work with his confidence indicator in the link below is very interesting, this in addition to his T theory work and advance decline charts is showing more trouble coming our way. He is looking for August 26 to be a pivotal time and then a rapid decline into June or July of 2011. My work is suggesting a pause in between with an October low to be followed by a rally and then the final bottom coming in on Martin Armstrong's Pi Cycle date in June 2011. The housing index chart is also pointing to a low for mid 2011.

http://ttheory.typepad.com/files/t-theory-confidence-indicatorpdf-.pdf

July 5 Update,  VXN Nasdaq Volatility Index is not making new highs as the market has come down, so despite the price charts looking bad, many of the internals are diverging which should lead to a rally now.

May 26 update... a closer look at the NYSE signal looks like June 4 +/- a day will most likely be the low and a good time to buy stock markets in general for a few months until markets start to turn down again.

May 6 Update,  As originally forecast on the Nov. 4 2009 post on this site, the NYSE is making a low in this time period, the time has shifted forward a few weeks from last November's predicted date, as best as I can determine the final low on this run will be late May or even the first week of June.

Update Friday April 23;  Market continues higher, signal appears to have only produced a very short term pull-back, still divergence happening in the vix, a more serious pull-back should be coming.

 5 days ago I wrote on the post below that I thought the banking index looked like it was going to peak this week, today the SEC charged Goldman Sachs with Fraud and the banking index and stock market in general is crashing now after a double top on the minute charts yesterday and a gap down today. News comes to satisfy technicals.

The Philadelphia Banking Index has trend which is likely showing a top for the banking index the week of April 12, 2010.

UPDATE MARCH 28,2010

- CRB Index has a trend for a low Oct. 2011
- Canadian Dollar has a trend for a low around Sept. 2011 (this is roughly in agreement with the CRB forecast, the CDN. Dollar is percieved to be a commodity currency
-US Dollar now looks like it is headed for a high in late May to early June 2010.

- The US Treasury benchmark 10 year yields are indicating a low (see chart below) in the spring of 2011, this trend looks confirmed, which means that another flight to percieved safety in US government bonds looks likely, that implies the Stock Market will make a low into Martin Armstrong's Pi Cycle date of mid June 2011 then.


The NYSE trend for a low in late April to early May (it could be around April 23 or it could be the first week of May from what I can see at this time, I may be able to pin-point it more clearly as we get closer to that time) still looks valid and a friend Humble1 who has just gone short after being long since March 2009 is also looking for a low in that time period, to be followed perhaps by the last good high in August in agreement with Terry Laundry's T-Theory

'Chart of the Day' shows Gold will most likely continue up in the future, to clarify: Gold should rally on a long term basis, it became very over-bought in November of 2009, my Silver chart several posts below this one shows trends for a low on Martin Armstrong's next major Pi Cycle date of June 2011, Silver not likely going down into that time period by itself, so Gold will most likely bottom in mid 2011 as well, Gold chart below top chart shows weak momentum now.

Brief note: the spx is oversold now (as of Wed. Jan 27, we can likely expect a rally into Feb., possibly starting next week. Longer term I am still looking at an April low, I will do a count to pin-point that low soon. I know lots of other people are expecting a rally into April, my oscillator is disagreeing.

The US Dollar index continues to rally into my forecasted early Feb. high from last October. Whether it just takes a rest once early Feb. arrives or goes back down is not clear to me at this time.(Jan.28)

CRB Index has broken its uptrend,late march or april looks to be the trend low for this index,a new chart will be posted.

SP500 breaking down...